Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
